Let’s get this out of the way, this post has nothing to do with uniforms and logos… but I like data and this is still my blog so whatever, we’re doing this here.
I was looking at the Vegas odds for the upcoming Super Bowl and was surprised to see (although I really shouldn’t be) that they’re already putting up the odds for Super Bowl LIII to be played *next* February even before we’re done with this season.
That had me thinking… what were the future odds for this year’s game a year ago? So I decided to check via the incredibly handy Internet Archive Wayback Machine and track the SB52 futures from last year’s Super Bowl LI through the off-season and into the season as far as I could.
Sports betting is a big business these days, although personally I just like to look at the numbers for fun. With Internet betting on the rise there are all sorts of new Football betting apps out there to help you out and give you tips. Handy.
Just a week after the New England Patriots defeated the Atlanta Falcons to win Super Bowl LI they were, of course, listed as the favourites to win it again one year later at 13/2 odds. The Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, found themselves in the bottom half of the league at 45/1, ranked 18th out of the 32 NFL teams. All charts are via VegasInsider.com.
It makes sense, the Pats were the newly crowned champs and the Eagles were coming off missing the playoffs for third straight season, finishing 7-9 and fourth in the NFC East.
As we move into the off-season the Patriots are favoured even more, still on top at 13/4 odds, while the Eagles go the opposite way…
Philadelphia now sitting 22nd overall at 50-to-1 odds. If you have a time machine, this is the time to put money on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl (uh, assuming they win on Sunday of course… but you have a time machine so you already know if they do or not).
Fast forward into the regular season and all it takes is a win in Week One to turn things around for the Eagles:
Following a 30-17 opening night win on the road over Washington the Eagles soar up to 14th in the league to 33/1 odds; and yes, the Patriots remain on top but now at 9/2.
A few weeks later the Eagles continue to close the gap:
In the three games they’ve played since the last update the Eagles win two and are now 3-1 on the year, putting them tenth overall on this chart at 25/1 odds (less than three months ago they were 50/1). New England sitting pretty on top at 4/1. Trend!
You think that last Eagles jump was impressive, just wait…
Bam.
Seven weeks and six Eagles games later (all of which were victories) and the team is now second overall, behind some other team, at 9/2 odds. New England now at 5/2. At this point in the season the Eagles were 9-1 and the Patriots 8-2; both teams would go on to finish first overall in their respective conferences, gain bye weeks in the first round of the playoffs and win a couple to gain entry to Super Bowl LII.
So… what if we looked at the odds for Super Bowl LIII now and picked the AFC and NFC teams in the same spots the Patriots and Eagles were a year ago, well you’d get this as your matchup:
Super Bowl LIII – New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You just can’t argue with this logic.