31% Chance Wearing Red, 25% in Original Six: Some Fun Connor Bedard Odds for NHL’s Draft Lottery

The National Hockey League will hold its annual Draft Lottery tonight, the winner of which will be given the first overall pick in the upcoming 2023 NHL Draft and the opportunity to add potential superstar Connor Bedard to their lineup for the fall.

Every year hockey fans are treated to several different versions of the same chart, one which simply shows the odds that each participating team has of winning the lottery… and where’s the fun in that?!

So let’s have some fun with some different ways of viewing the odds of where Connor Bedard will begin his pro hockey career. First, to just get it out of the way, here’s the old standard, showing the odds per team of getting the first overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft:

So, as we all know by now, the Anaheim Ducks finished 32nd in the NHL last season and therefore have the highest odds of any single club to land Bedard. While 25.5% tops the other participants by a fairly significant margin, it also means that there’s a nearly 74.5% chance the Ducks *don’t* get the number one pick.

Note, the NHL’s rules state a club can only move up ten spaces which essentially eliminates those clubs ranked 12 to 16 from getting the number one pick — yes, even if they win the lottery. The chart above and those charts which follow all account for that rule in the stated odds of acquiring Bedard.

What if I’m not a fan of any of the teams involved and just want to know, generally, where he’ll be playing? Well, here are the odds of Bedard playing in either conference.

There’s a 3-out-of-5 chance Bedard refuses to touch the Campbell Bowl trophy someday, while the Prince of Wales Trophy will be ignored in only 2-out-of-5 draws.

What if you’re simply a fan of the All-Star Game and want to know which Division to cheer for next season at the 2024 NHL All-Star Game in Toronto?

Bedard has a 38% chance of ending up in the Pacific Division, 26% in the Metropolitan, 22.5% in the Central, and trailing far behind is the Atlantic Division at 13.5%.

Into marketing and promotion? The country in which a player suits up seems to have a big impact on whether or not you’ll see them in commercials and other advertising where you live. So, let’s break things down by the nation of the winning team:

Canada may have gotten the other Connor, but it looks like this one will be calling the United States of America home for the 2023-24 season and beyond. There’s an 88.5% chance Bedard ends up playing for an American team, while only 11.5% he goes to a Canadian club.

What about the age of the club itself? Is Bedard going to a hundred-year-old Original Six team or one of the many expansion clubs to join in the 1990s? Let’s explore!

There’s a 42.5% chance Bedard goes to a club which began play (in its current market) in the 1990s — yes, this includes the Coyotes; add in the 13.5% chance that the 2000s Columbus Blue Jackets have, and we’re up to a 56% chance Bedard plays for a club which began sometime after the 1990 season. Those hoping Bedard ends up with a more “traditional” club like those of the “Original Six” era can hold out hope with a 25% chance — basically, it’s the exact same odds that he ends up with the Anaheim Ducks (25.5%) that he does an Original Six franchise (25%).

Keeping in mind that this is a site which focuses on the aesthetics of sports, what if I just want to know what colour Bedard will be wearing? It’ll be a pretty major part of his brand and identity going forward; after all, he’ll forever be associated with the logo and uniform of his rookie team in one way or another.

Looking only at the base colour of each club’s home uniform, the odds are greatest that Bedard will play for a team which wears black at home (Ducks, Coyotes) at 33%. Red follows very closely behind at 31% (Chicago, Montreal, Washington, Detroit), with blue in third at 20%, teal at 9.5%, and finally orange at 6.5%. There’s a combined 51% chance that he wears either of the two most common colours in the league as his primary hue — red or blue.

All these odds are giving me a headache; I need something definitive, guaranteed, something 100%…

There we go; there’s a 100% chance Bedard will wear white on the road.

Good luck to all those with teams in the Draft Lottery tonight! Bedard looks to be an amazing talent, and regardless of how much of an impact a single player may or may not have on an NHL roster, he’ll at least be a tonne of fun to watch for any fanbase.